Touchscreens were for me a lesson in humbleness: when they were first introduced, I was utterly convinced that they would never take off.

Inspired by the responses to the previous toot, I open the issue: what was you most blatantly wrong technological prophecy?

Mine:
- I was sure touchscreens would never take off.
- I believed that the idea of registering digital art on the blockchain was ridiculous

@entreprecariat 'I believed that the idea of registering digital art on the blockchain was ridiculous'

What changed your mind?

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@rra let's put it like this: I still find it ridiculous, but I can't ignore the economy that NFT and stuff are "generating".

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@rra from wp: "The NFT market value tripled in 2020, reaching more than $250 million. During the first quarter of 2021, NFT sales exceeded $2 billion."

@entreprecariat @rra but this is very un-evenly distributed. I would guess these numbers are split between very few big whales.

@entreprecariat @rra there was a good article a few months back with charts of how uneven it is but I can't find it now

@entreprecariat @rra the size of the economy doesn't make it a good idea. NFTs are just very enviromentally unfriendly and basically unenforceable derivatives.

The "unenforceable" part is what makes them a borderline scam.

@entreprecariat @rra Ponzi schemes and multi-level marketing schemes were/are also generating huge economies, after all.

@rysiek @rra i agree completely on the fact that they're a bad idea, but reality is full of bad ideas and most of them can't be ignored

@entreprecariat @rysiek @rra if your initial conclusion was simply that it was ridiculous, you were absolutely not wrong. after the hype explosion earlier this year the space is now mostly a cesspool of crypto pump-and-dumpers (NFTs help create a smokescreen of legitimacy around crypto in general) with a few diehard artists still begging for attention at the fringes.

@entreprecariat @rra
I think the Economics Explained video covers this pretty well. NFT art DOESN'T make sense, but neither does the actual physical art market. At the end of the day, people like to signal their wealth and signal the art that they care about. When every copy is identical, the certificate of authenticity becomes very important, and using a digital certificate of authenticity isn't a huge stretch.

@cjd @entreprecariat @rra @jplebreton I found this article very informative concerning the market and who is profiting from it: thatkimparker.medium.com/most-

for me it is quite obvious why NFT and the art market go so well together: they share an obsession with provenance / authenticity, and the generation of value is based on speculation in both cases too. It's a perfect match in economic character, and the talking about the democratization of the art market is a rationalization, that cannot hold its promises, as the numbers show.

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